Special DElivery: X-Factors in a shortened NHL campaign

By Darren Eliot –

What took so long to end now gives way to a jiffy start, rejiggered NHL season. How can something that dragged on interminably precede a hockey hastening and awakening of startling swiftness? I’m speaking of the L-word, of course, and how after enduring NHL game deprivation, we have sensory overload as the league leaps into action.

Under these circumstances, it is hard to imagine what to expect. The marathon that is the regular season is now a half marathon. With the playing landscape having fewer games, a multitude of questions come to mind when projecting potential success and failure. Which players are most ready for the rigors of the compressed schedule? What teams have more of those players and which coaches have the right mindset to succeed in the NHL’s altered state that is the 2013 season?

Here are some factors to consider when handicapping the NHL’s truncated 48-game tournament.

Schedule: There is an unbalanced quality to the games, right down to divisional play. Eighteen games in all within the division, five against two foes and four apiece versus the other two. That alone makes for conjecture as to the draw of games. In the Red Wings’ case, playing the Predators the extra game as opposed to facing the Blue Jackets an extra time could be significant.

For the remaining 30 games, each team will play the other teams in their respective conference three times and won’t play any out-of-conference games. Again, the unbalanced nature means uneven home and road slates versus conference opponents impacting travel – how many trips out west for the Wings – and the strength of an opponent at home as opposed to their road success. Last season, the Red Wings were elite at home, going 31-7-3, and away from the Joe they were less than mediocre, at 17-21-3. So, two games at the Joe versus the Canucks is a lot better than two in Vancouver.

Ready to go: You must quickly glance around the NHL circuit and see which teams are set up to start fast and finish strong. That is a combination of veterans who stayed sharp by playing overseas, like Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg did by competing in the KHL and Swiss league, respectively. Then you have to consider youngsters that are truly in mid-season form after competing in the AHL during the first half while the NHL was dark. Gustav Nyquist, Brendan Smith and Tomas Tatar have all had strong seasons thus far. Do they get more time with the Red Wings due to being competitively in-tune immediately? Will a young Landon Ferraro get an opportunity to fill a role as a role player based on his improved second pro season?

Those are the roster wild cards associated with this condensed campaign, as younger players will have a chance to be impact players immediately around the league. It is a forced and necessary infusion of youth – an unpredictable byproduct of a mid-season start. No team can ease into the schedule and every club will need young, fresh legs to carry them through to the frenetic finish.

That is certainly what the Edmonton Oilers hope happens with Jordan Eberle leading the AHL in scoring, followed by defenseman Justin Schultz and Taylor Hall at eighth. Add in first overall pick Nail Yakupov playing in the KHL and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, fresh off being the top performer in the World Junior Championship, and if ever a team was ready to jump the competition on the strength of current and competitive young legs, it would appear to be the Oilers.

Yet, you have to have goaltending. No team can afford to have their goalies “find their form”. Last year, Martin Brodeur struggled during the first half of the season, but over the course of 82 games, there was enough time for him to get his game on track. Locally, Jimmy Howard was the best goaltender in the NHL during the first half of the season. Injuries and the resulting inconsistency marred his second half. If Howard can replicate his start from 18 months ago, the Joe will be a fun place to be come spring time.

Coaching: Managing players becomes paramount in this abbreviated context. A coach that favors rolling four lines to wear down an opponent, like Ken Hitchcock in St. Louis, might have to adjust more quickly than usual if nothing is coming from that style in the short-term. Conversely, coaches that are quick to shorten their bench – like John Tortorella in New York, or Bob Hartley in Calgary – have to be mindful of not burning out their players since there is precious little time on the calendar for recovery. Red Wings’ bench boss Mike Babcock has to adjust his thinking without Nick Lidstrom to rely on. No longer does Babcock have the luxury of defaulting to having No. 5 out there in every single situation of note. How well the blue line minutes are managed and how the group led by Nick Kronwall  responds may be the single most important factor in the Red Wings’ appearing in the postseason for the 22nd straight season.

Let the games begin. Finally.